Luis F. Aleman is an avid follower of the economy who has developed a career in entrepreneurship that provides him with a strong understanding of marketplace dynamics. He has been afforded a great deal of success at an early age thanks to his passion and hard work and dedication to the areas of finance and international trade.
Luis’ first work experience was as an Account Executive with Sycamore Funding, a wholesale mortgage company that operates in the Indianapolis area. His work with them was short, but he managed more than a million dollars worth of loans during the financial crisis and did so in just a 3 month period. His work in the mortgage industry provided him with hands-on experience in the financial industry, and he has developed a keen eye for financial details from this experience.
Soon after developing in this first role, Luis took the opportunity to establish his own consultancy agency, LFA Holdings. He founded this business in 2009 and has continuously operated for over a decade. His business offers small and middle-market companies with high-quality advisory services in addition to a number of other support offerings. As CEO, Luis has developed the business into the powerhouse that it is today. In addition to his work as CEO with LFA, Luis has been Managing Director with Ethiopian Wild Coffee Since 2013. This import/export company sells and exclusive list of USDA certified organic raw commodities in markets across the globe. The company works closely with farming co-ops in Ethiopia, who harvest spices, honey, and arabica beans. In his management role, he has been a pivotal member of the Ethiopian Wild Coffe team and has provided the company with a number of insights into marketplace opportunities, as well as been a capable and determined leader to his managed employees.
Since 2018, Luis F. Aleman has worked as CEO with East Atlantic Holdings International. This international trade and development firm seeks to help farmers in other countries grow better crops and maintain strong environmental compliance. Luis’s strong financial sense and marketplace understanding has provided him with the tools to succeed in this position, as well as provided the company with the keys to success.
Luis F. Aleman on Economic Bounces
The economy will recover. There are many fears surrounding the hows and whys of economic recovery, but in the end, we should have faith that even after a crisis as major and global as the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy will bounce back. The exact hows and whys, however, are still concerning to many people. Economists all over the world have their own perspectives and opinions around the recovery process, and each one may have a certain insight that could indicate that their perspective is stronger or weaker than the others. Because the economic world is in such turmoil, it would be difficult to say for certain what the future holds, but Luis F. Aleman offers to take a look at the more common recovery predictions and offer explanations for why economists believe in them.
Reverse Radical
According to 538, a majority of economists are predicting that the recovery will take a “reverse radical’ shape in the GDP. This checkmark-looking shape is marked by a short but sharp rebound, followed by a slow and even recovery. The sharp decline has already occurred, and it is expected that the economy will make a quick upward climb in the few days or weeks after re-opening. However, many small businesses have been permanently affected by the pandemic, which many economists expect has lowered the maximum limit of this rebound. But recovery will continue on afterward.
The ‘Swoosh’
This expectation is very similar to the reverse radical, but rather than a quick rebound, some economists believe that the recovery will be on the slower side. Despite the reopening of may businesses throughout the country, it’s not unlikely that many consumers and businesses will take a more cautious approach. 15% of the economists surveyed believe that this recovery will occur.
The U Shape
This is perhaps the most uncomfortable option to consider, but almost a tenth of economists surveyed believe that recovery will take a ‘U’ shape. After the rapid decline of the economy, there may be a long period of stagnation, during which little to no growth is seen. But after a time, likely after a vaccine is created and consumer comfort returns, recovery is quick. This could be seen as a middle-ground between the Swoosh and Reverse Radical, as it averages out the optimism and pessimism, but with a bit more of a glass-half-full consideration.
The W Shape
A small number of economists have put their beliefs in an erratic recovery, marked by repeated ups and downs. This could be a reasonable expectation, considering the rising fear of a second wave of COVID cases in the US. However, this assumes that consumers will react as strongly to the news of a second wave as strongly as they reacted to the first. Because this is a more erratic prediction, it relies on a wider number of factors for it to come true.
The V Shape
This is the most optimistic prediction by far. The V shape is rather self-explanatory – a quick decline, followed by a quick recovery. Not a single economist surveyed put their prediction behind this recovery. This isn’t completely outside the realm of possibility, but would require a great deal of consumer confidence, and all businesses to react swiftly; as well as for the pandemic to receive a vaccine or for the ‘second wave’ to be avoided entirely.
Conclusion
While the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis was large, it is not naive to believe in a large-scale recovery. It is the opinion of Luis Aleman that accurately predicting the recovery is difficult to say the least. But at the same time, we have data from many past economic events that allow a degree of faith and certainty that recovery is inevitable – if variable.
